More than 10,000 Aussies ordered a new RAV4 before few had seen it in the metal or taken a test drive – and Toyota expects at least 30,000 more to follow by the end of this year.
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Toyota is hoping to deliver 40,000 RAV4s to customers by the end of this year – more than 90 per cent will be the new model – as it looks to retain its title of Australia’s best-selling SUV.
It is gearing up to sell more than 50,000 next year, and become Toyota’s most popular model – a title which, if the current top-selling Ford Ranger ute stumbles, could see the RAV4 become the first SUV to top Australia’s annual new-car sales charts.
Nearly one-in-three RAV4s sold this year is expected to be the new plug-in hybrid, despite not arriving in showrooms until after mid-year, and prices starting from more than $60,000 drive-away.
RAV4 sales are down 72 per cent so far this year as stock of the outgoing model ran dry at most dealers, ahead of the new generation’s arrival in late March.
Toyota Australia sales and marketing boss John Pappas told Drive that “over 10,000 orders” were collected between orders opening in December, and deliveries commencing.
“It's only been just over a week now that we've wholesaled the car [launched it in showrooms],” Pappas said at a media preview drive of the new RAV4 in Tasmania.
“I had a meeting this morning with my team in Melbourne, and I'm already hearing that the feedback and even this month on RAV4 is going very strong.”
Toyota is targeting more than 40,000 deliveries for the RAV4 in 2026, a number that becomes more impressive when the January to March tally of 3842 – compared to 13,802 over the same period in 2025 – is considered.
“We won't have a 12-month window [in 2026] in order to get to the levels we were at last year, and that's why we're planning on 40,000 this year,” Pappas said.
“Next year, we will be above 50,000 on RAV.”
Last year, Toyota reported 51,947 RAV4s as sold by 31 December, down from 58,718 the year prior as the model aged, and its successor drew closer – a number it could hit again if demand surpasses expectations.
“How far over [50,000] will depend on how we go in the evolving conditions we're in right now. So again, not knowing what to forecast because of the environment we're in, at this stage we think it will be over 50,000 [in 2027],” Pappas told Drive.
The executive said the RAV4 is not expected to be Toyota’s top seller, as it expects to deliver more than 50,000 examples of the recently-overhauled HiLux ute, but a swap back is forecast for 2027.
It remains to be seen if it can top the Ford Ranger (56,555 sales reported in 2025) to become the country’s top-selling new car, as what would be the first SUV to do so.
“Based on our sales estimates, we think RAV will be number one for us next year, because we know what we're doing,” Pappas said.
“We don't know what the market's going to do, so it's not right for me to say that, you know, because I don't know what others are going to do, but for us, we think it will be our, our number-one selling car.”
Pappas would not be drawn on a split in demand between regular hybrid model grades from the first batches of orders.
However, of the 40,000 due to leave dealer floors this year, nearly one in three is tipped to be a plug-in hybrid (PHEV).
“We expect that around 30 per cent of our [RAV4] sales this year will be the plug-in hybrid, roughly,” he said.
“If we're seeing that we're getting a reflection of more than that rate, then obviously we'll work with TMC [Toyota HQ in Japan] on trying to lift that composition in our supply for 2027. But let's see how the next period goes.”
The cheapest RAV4 plug-in hybrid is the $58,840 plus on-road costs XSE, about $13,000 dearer than the least expensive new RAV4 of any kind.
“Wait till you drive the plug-in hybrid,” Pappas told Drive, when asked if the high price is a concern for demand.
“We've obviously got now that coming in two-wheel drive and all-wheel drive, and it’s coming in a new halo grade, which is the GR Sport.
“… I'm sure once you see it and drive it, you'll appreciate why I'm saying we think that it's going to be around 30 per cent of our RAV sales.”
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Alex Misoyannis has been writing about cars since 2017, when he started his own website, Redline. He contributed for Drive in 2018, before joining CarAdvice in 2019, becoming a regular contributing journalist within the news team in 2020. Cars have played a central role throughout Alex’s life, from flicking through car magazines at a young age, to growing up around performance vehicles in a car-loving family. Highly Commended - Young Writer of the Year 2024 (Under 30) Rising Star Journalist, 2024 Winner Scoop of The Year - 2024 Winner
