A recent rise in Australia’s road toll suggests we are following a USA precedent of rising pedestrian deaths that started long ago.
A recent rise in Australia’s road toll suggests we are following a USA precedent of rising pedestrian deaths that started long ago.
Australia’s historic overall decline in road deaths since the late 1970s is being undermined by following in the USA’s footsteps, warns a road safety expert.
Associate Professor Milad Haghani, a road safety expert from the University of Melbourne says that a recent rise in Australia’s road toll actually reflects a pattern that emerged in the USA over 15 years ago.
Australia's annual total road deaths 1925-2025
“What you see in the US is a sharp increase from 2010 in pedestrian crashes, something that we are replicating.” Doctor Haghani said.
“I have been saying that Australia is going to have a pedestrian [deaths] trend similar to the US."
As recently reported by Drive, latest data shows Australia’s road toll has risen year-on-year for five years, the first time such a sustained rise has occurred since the period following World War II. Rising pedestrian deaths are a potentially a key contributor to the recent rise.
Australian annual road deaths split by road user
Dr Haghani says that the increasing rate of pedestrian fatalities in America is due to US motorists' preference for large vehicles, and that Australia’s pedestrian fatalities may now be rising for the same reason.
“If you look at it right now, it is just that tail of the pedestrian US deaths back in 2010, you're now seeing in 2025 because they [the United States] have started this trend of increasing car sizes little bit earlier obviously and that is showing in the data.”
Dr Haghani believes that widespread opinion attributing rising pedestrian deaths to pedestrians crossing illegally, wearing headphones, or being distracted by mobile phones is misinformed and not supported by evidence.
“Phones have been around for multiple decades now. The change in the pedestrian fatalities is more recent.”
Annual deaths from road incidents, United States
Dr Haghani points to recent high fatality counts in older people, while pedestrian fatalities amongst 21 to 29 year olds fell.
Dr Haghani says that if phone use was a dominating factor then deaths would also be increasing among young people, as the youth are typically considered the most prevalent phone users.
Recently released data from the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (BITRE) shows that pedestrian fatalities amongst 21-30 year olds have dropped year-on-year since 2023. Meanwhile every other age group has seen fatalities increase since 2023.
Pedestrian road fatalities by age group with COVID-19 period highlighted
The past five years of year-on-year growth in road deaths also include two years where motorists in many Australian states experienced unprecedented restrictions on travel and therefore driving during periods of 2020 and 2021 due to COVID-19 lockdowns.
It remains to be seen if year-on-year road fatality rises will continue, or if the recent rise in road fatalities is an anomaly. Australia's national road fatality data is regularly published online by the Bureau of Infrastructure and Transport Research Economics (BITRE).
The fatality data is updated on or around the 14th day of each month.
Max is the News Publishing Coordinator for Drive. He enjoys creating engaging digital content, including videos, podcasts, interactive maps, and graphs. Prior to Drive, he studied at Monash University and gained experience working for various publications. He grew up playing Burnout 3: Takedown on the PS2 and was disappointed when real life car races didn’t have the same physics.
